What is expected value (EV)

Professional bettors are familiar with the term Expected Value (EV) and strive to meet it in the bets they make. Expected Value and finds application not only in sports betting but also in poker circles. It is based on mathematics and is used to achieve positive results in the long run. In this article, we will introduce you to what the so-called “Expected Value (EV)” is and how to apply it successfully in our game.

This value tells us how much we can win from a bet. For example, with a sports bet of €100 at odds of 2.50, then we will win €150 cleanly. The generally accepted value for winning in the long run is about 40%. This means that we will win €150 40% of the time we bet and lose €100 the rest of the time.
To determine what our Expected Value will be, we apply the following formula: (probability of winning x profit) – (probability of losing x bet). In our case it will look like this: EV= (0.4×150) – (0.6×100) = 0.00
And in the end, if we bet this way, our EV will be 0. This shouldn’t shock you, as this is the goal of any bookmaker – to provide you with balanced odds that will minimize your losses to the maximum and be profitable on the margin they offer.
Bookmakers provide us with the so called Implied Probability, which is always higher than the real one. Suppose it is 40%, it should actually be 35%. We’ll give you an example with the odds for the Goal/Goal market in sports betting on football.

• Both teams to score – 1.91 (probability: 52%)
• Only one team to score – 1.91 (probability: 52%)

Simple calculations show that both outcomes provide a 104% probability, which should be 100%. The 4 percent that comes into the equation represents the bookmaker’s margin, or in simple terms – the bookmaker earns 4 percent on every buck wagered on this market.
We apply the formula for the “Expected value of each bet” and here is what it shows us:
EV = (35% x 150) – (65% x 100) = €52.5 – €65 = – €12.5.
The math shows that our bet has a negative -EV and will bring us losses in the long run! So you should look for a positive +EV, which we will pay particular attention to.
If you want to learn about Return on investment in sports betting be sure to look our comprehensive review.

Positive + Expected value

In order to profit from sports betting, it is necessary to make quality predictions. Then even with a lower guess percentage you could generate more profit in the long run. It may sound ridiculous, but under certain circumstances a high guess percentage does not mean more or higher profits. In the long run, if we make more predictions with -EV we will be at a loss, even if we have a high guess percentage.

High quality predictions in sports betting are those with a positive Expected Value, which may not always be profitable, but mathematically will bring us a profit in the long run. It is worth noting here that positive Expected Value is not just about the odds!

The basic rule to follow to have a positive +EV is to make a bet that you are confident has a realistic probability of coming out and the Implied Probability is higher than the odds the bookmaker is offering. In simplest terms – Manchester City and Arsenal are playing. You are confident that the Manchester City will break the Arsenal and have more than 50% chance to win. The odds for Manchester are 2.00 and in this case we have +EV. It is important to note that your judgement should be based on reality, not fan bias!

In summarize:

By using the positive Expected Value (+EV) you will be able to secure a long-term profit from sports betting in the long run. For this you should only make value bets and play sensibly and with discipline, without giving in to emotion.
Now that you are familiar with expected value check our guide to puck line in betting and start winning.